Forecast: Destiny of The USA  more Musings, and a decade of my Taglines

  
This is an on-going update of my changing outlook for the USA as part of project EerieKA, since 2006, on economical, social and political fronts. It serves as an outline and summary of the background materials for understanding some of my writing. The table shows at-a-glance my shift in optimism, and providing progressively more details.  Followed by a compilation of my relevant taglines from the last few years.
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Forecast 		April 15 2010 Sep 8, 2009 June 23, 2009 February 2008 July 2007
Root Causes
Brewing Since		   long before The Civil War 1940s 1960s 1980s
Economic
Recession		  
  • Best case scenario: 6~18 months pre-depression, and again lasting 15 ~ 75 years post-depression.
  • Worst case scenario: indefinite (500+ years)
 on-going commenced

>>>see also:
My Vision of 2033
in August 2008

 imminent
Economic
Depression		 C
O
M
I
N
G

S
O
O
N
  • Starts within 6~18 months, lasting 4 ~ 25 years.
  • preceded by: 2nd round of "contraction" between Sep 9 & Oct 30 likely (75% sure, 90% by Jan 2010, 98% by March).
  • triggered with yet another round of pump & dump, with Dow breaching 10,000 notional briefly.
  • then followed by stronger and more frequent cycles (Tagline: Sep 11, 2008)
 occurs within 12 ~ 18 months inevitable, will make 1932 pale in comparison

See: Future (My 2008 vision of 2033)

 very likely
Life on
Main Street/
Global Standing/
Spiral to abyss		  
  • Reverse out-sourcing commence within 18~48 months.
  • Spike in learning foreign languages within 3~7 years.
  • Commercial real-estate market crashes commence in earnest right after new year 2010.
  • Effects of Baltic Dry dip become apparent to the masses.
  • Unemployment rate U6 current at 17%, will exceed 25% by April
 for 15 years ~ 150 years Catastrophic diminishment of clout occurring within 5 years, lasting 5 ~50 years n/a
Banking
Infrastructure		  
  • Eventually consolidate to 4 banks with 90%+ market within 4 years, via gov-sponsored sweetheart xfer in Shock Doctrine fashion.
  • (80%) Another imminent (weeks ~ months) collapse: Bank of America, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, GMAC. They could also nominate a surrogate outside of this group.
  • (60%) Third-world style elective currency devaluation and "bank holiday" within next 18 months
 1500 banks fail within 30 months    
USD
Currency
Collapse		  
  • Dollar Index could breach 70 within 13 weeks, breaking 2008 historic low
  • Gold to surpass March 2008 high within days, and break $2000 notional value in 14 months; possible parity w/ Dow in 4 years
  • China & Japan prep for exit: cease T-bond buys completely, diminishing short-term T-bill purchases.
  • China will lead overt sell off at the point of 30% unloading, strictly via low-key commodity/asset acquisitions (off-Forex), and accept the remainder as losses.
  • Hong Kong will de-peg from USD within 6 ~24 months, on an emergency basis
  • The Ponzi scheme is living on borrowed time.
  • Repatriation of USD due to "short squeeze" is purely transient and tactical
  • trajectory solidifies, pace quickening
  • sink with 4 yrs
 within a decade
Civil Unrest & Lawlessness  
  • State shutdowns/failures: led by California, Nevada, Michigan, Alabama and Florida; spreading to numerous other states.
  • prisoners released en masse
  • Court systems overwhelmed, come to a grinding halt
  • Counter-party enforcement impossible due to infinite circular nature, and tedious divvying of securitization process
  • many banks & counties will suspend foreclosure enforcement, with full knowledge that it'd only hasten its own demise
 State muni rating adjustment inevitable, rendering them unsellable and worthless
  • Unenforceability surfacing, initially purely due to logistical nightmare from perpetual reselling
  • first hint of possibly all pension plans are but  illusions
  
Suspension
of Civil Rights		  
  • 5/15/50% probability within 6m/2yr/4yr
  • Defined as extended (2-week+) nation-wide suspension, not localized/state-wide (which has a 99% probability with the next 4 years).
  • Additional pretext via false flag likely
 more pieces in-place commenced in earnest Distinct possibility
End of
Republic		  
  • 2/10/20% probability within 3yr/10yr/25yr
  • Montana and Vermont likely be the start
  • North Dakota, Montana, Pennsylvania and possibly Florida next
  • All of them will eventually rejoin one of the larger regional subgroups, after the fracturing
 hmmm, what to say... yeah, a remote but distinct possibility  
Recovery from
"blow back",
other seeds 		  Not ready to disclose/assert yet. And that aspect is quite irrelevant in the end. Let's just say, metaphorically—this one-time generator's usefulness to someone has expired. The fate of being encased by pouring cement to contain the radiation is unavoidable.      

Hint: Anyone suggesting I'm thinking "the end of the world" should put those words back into his/her own mouth, and be laughed to death, for failing to comprehend how the world works.

 

A compilation of finance-related taglines from the past few years


The sheep herd blindly trail the behind of the sheep just ahead. Be a black sheep with wide-open eyes! Navigate by sight, not whiff!    SEP 12 2009

"...too big to bail, but too big to fail" = it will fail. The former is a physical impossibility. The
latter will naturally occur—despite the dismay expressed.

Muni, muni on the "Wall" $$$$ Calif
who's the stinkiest of them all? 

G20: non-committal "commitments" + non-factual "facts" + imaginary "understanding" = much ado about nothing. The Great Leap (off the cliff) commenced. tick, tock...  APR 10 2009

It's official: Banana Republic of Amerika!  Or, the birth of Weimarer Republik II. Awww, so cute!  MAR 23 2009

What you're smoking, is the only "green shoot" there is.   MAR 20 2009

Now, 17 months later... Who's laughing? Who's the insane one? Sadly, you remain utterly ignorant, not at all repentant, but every bit as complicit and destructive. MAR 19 2009

Forget about so-called micro/macro. It's the meta-macro, stupid!  In reality, everyone is but a nano-cycle opportunist. Blindly myopic, unwittingly suicidal and ultimately—pointless.
Please, spare me your lecture of:
"Don't you get it?
 It'll always be a swindle anyway
and somebody's got to gain..."
Duh!!   see AUG 12 2008

As the "Baltic Dry" dries...  DEC 7 2008

Letting the cripple carry the blind is no way to escape a fire. Horse before cart! FEB 15 2009

Which part of “mathematically impossible” don't you understand? Must I draw a diagram for “smoke & mirror”? OCT1 2008

The bad news: You haven't seen anything yet!  The "good" news: We'll all become millionaires. Don't cry for me Ameritina. SEP 17 2008

Our collective water has broken, from here on out, contraction cycles will increase in strength and frequency. We've been pregnant since summer 2007. Sep 11 2008

I watch the pre-programmed sequence unfold from the front row. Soon, all of you laughers won't. The period 2 months to 4 years from now will be quite interesting.  AUG 15 2008

Swindle? The entire "republic" is the mother of all Ponzi schemes. Naked shorts? The entire system is a series of un-enforced perpetual FTDs. Yeah, I actually understand the nuts and bolts.
Rules: Beggars can't be choosers. Steal with one hand. Don't kill the goose. AUG 12 2008

Reality and substance will be in-fashion once again, after the transformation. AUG 11 2008

Ignition sequence: Go.   Final multi-stage spiral commenced. Destination: The abyss. AUG 9 2008

Surreal? Indeed!  Surprised? Hardly!  Stop listening to parrots and noise-makers. But, first... Take a hard look in the mirror. JUN 2 2008

Tiny bubbles in the wine. Make me happy. Ah, they make me feel fine...

If you didn't understand 8 years ago, what makes you think you'll get it now? FEB 14 2008

"Rogue trader" my asset! It's standard practice, with orders from the top. There's much more unraveling coming, both natural and strategically-induced. Shhhh... he'll be out in 6 months flat, with limo and Swiss account awaiting.  JAN 30 2008    [Oh... color me naive. Only 4 weeks!!!]

Hunker down! Batten hatches! Tsunami imminent. JAN 1 2008

At this point, 4- to 25-year recovery period would be considered "soft landing." NOV 29 2007

Shuffling and fluffing does not new wealth make.  OCT 15 2007